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August 23, 2012

Electoral College Prediction

Two political science professors from the University of Colorado are forecasting a Romney victory.  Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver  have put together a prediction model based on economic indicators.

To predict the race's outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.

According to the professors, their model has picked the winner in every presidential election since 1980.  I happen to believe the election outcome will be worse than the model's predicted 320-218 Obama loss.  This will be the very first Tea Party presidential election.  Tea Partiers are much better organized than they were going into 2010, and they aren't any less motivated. There has never been such a huge movement of conservative activists before, at least not in my lifetime.

If the rest of the Tea Partiers are like me, they haven't been sitting around waiting for Gallup to call.  I don't answer my phone in the evening unless caller ID says it's somebody I know.  I doubt that the pollsters have any idea what we think, and they won't find out until after the votes are counted.

Posted by Tom Bowler at 06:20 AM | Permalink


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"they won't find out until after the votes are counted."

You are assuming that the November election will actually take place.

Posted by: Howard | Aug 23, 2012 11:07:00 AM

... oh, and don't forget: Black people, union members, and cemetery residents will vote mostly for Obama. Some of them more than once.

Posted by: Howard | Aug 23, 2012 11:08:39 AM

Yes, that is an assumption. The November election will take place. As to the second point, people will be watching. Voter fraud is a hot button this year.

Posted by: Tom Bowler | Aug 23, 2012 12:44:38 PM

Electoral College? You mean I don't live in a "peoples" democracy, but rather, a Constitutional Republic?

I have to vote for Rep, AND a Senator? Why?
WHat is this "change-over day" thingie?

You mean after ALL THAT, one office holder can just cancel stuff, then make contrary "proclaimations"? Who "appoints" the referees for this anyway?

What is this "executive commitee" thingie I keep hearing about? Is THAT important?

Whoda' thunk it could be so...complicated?
Maybe we should just ignore extra "insight" from "academics"?

Posted by: CaptDMO | Aug 23, 2012 11:37:24 PM