Two political science professors from the University of Colorado are forecasting a Romney victory. Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver have put together a prediction model based on economic indicators.
To predict the race's outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.
According to the professors, their model has picked the winner in every presidential election since 1980. I happen to believe the election outcome will be worse than the model's predicted 320-218 Obama loss. This will be the very first Tea Party presidential election. Tea Partiers are much better organized than they were going into 2010, and they aren't any less motivated. There has never been such a huge movement of conservative activists before, at least not in my lifetime.
If the rest of the Tea Partiers are like me, they haven't been sitting around waiting for Gallup to call. I don't answer my phone in the evening unless caller ID says it's somebody I know. I doubt that the pollsters have any idea what we think, and they won't find out until after the votes are counted.