Today's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll at Rasmussen shows President Obama with a 1-point lead of over Mitt Romney. But Rasmussen also provides this bit of information.
Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 85% of Democrats. The GOP hopeful has a four-point edge among voters not affiliated with either major party.
So Rasmussen has Romney with a 4-point lead among independents and he attracts a higher percentage of Republican voters than Obama's percentage of Democrats. The only way I can see Obama with a lead under these circumstances is if there are quite a few more Democrats than Republicans and quite a few more Democrats than Independents in the poll sampling.
This would be at odds with other Rasmussen polling in which a higher number of people identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats, which they've been doing all year long. In the latest poll, August, people said they were Republican 37.6% of the time, compared to 33.3% Democrat and 29.2% who said they were neither Republican nor Democrat.
I'm not a Rassmussen subscriber so I can't look very deeply into the poll samplings. I don't understand why he expects a higher turnout of Democrats than Republicans and Independents unless he is counting on some degree of apathy among Tea Partiers. I'm not sure I'd count on that if I were an Obama supporter.
Looking into the Presidential Approval Index for today we find that only 48% approve of the job Obama is doing while 51% disapprove and 43% strongly disapprove. As we head closer to election day I have a hard time imagining that there are many, if any, left-wingers among that strongly disapproving group. I think it's mostly conservatives and Tea Partiers, like the ones who showed up in DC three years ago this month. They were a motivated group then, and they're a motivated group now.
It still looks like a November blowout to me.