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October 29, 2012

Advantage Romney — 52% to 47%

In a memo to "Interested Parties" Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group provide their "Key findings from Battleground Week 6 Survey."  In the final paragraph they project that election day will conclude with Romney winning 52% to 47% over Obama.

In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.  These factors come into play with our “vote election model” — which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points — 52% to 47%.  While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.

This comes by way of the Weekly Standard where they suggest that a 52% to 47% margin for Romney would significantly improve Republican chances for gaining control of the Senate.  Isn't validation a wonderful thing?  I've been saying for some time now that I expect another Republican blowout like the one in 2010.

Posted by Tom Bowler at 12:39 PM | Permalink


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