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October 30, 2012

So Much For Obama's Early Voting Edge

Early voting was supposed to give the edge, and the election, to Barack Obama.  The way the theory goes, Obama is banking so many early votes that it will be impossible for Romney to catch up on election day.

Early voting is giving President Barack Obama a lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in battleground states such as Iowa, Obama campaign senior political strategist David Axelrod said.

“The main thing is not to look at the polling but to look at the voting,” Axelrod said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“We believe that we are mounting up a very, very large lead in Iowa based on where those early votes are coming from,” he said, while indications in Florida “are very positive.”

That was David Axelrod on Sunday.  According to a new Gallup poll that came out yesterday, the early vote theory isn't holding up so well.  In a poll of voters who have already cast their ballots, Romney leads.  Significantly.

Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

Readers of Libertarian Leaning already know I've been expecting a blowout for months.  It's now beginning to look like we might go to bed pretty early on election night.

Posted by Tom Bowler at 10:43 AM | Permalink


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