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November 05, 2012

Final CNN Poll — Obama and Romney Tied

Ed Morrissey, Hot Air, checks the poll's internals and explains why this is not good news for Barack Obama.

According to CNN’s internals of this likely-voter survey, Obama doesn’t come close to tying Romney in one key indicator — independent voters.  According to the sample data, Romney leads independents by a whopping twenty-two points, 59/37.  How can Romney have a 22-point lead among independents but still only get to a 49-all tie with Obama?

Here’s how:

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

Yes, that’s a D/R/I of 41/30/29.  In 2008, a big turnout election for Democrats, the D/R/I was 39/32/29, and Obama won independents by eight points.

Does anybody really think the Tea Party is staying home tomorrow?  Not happening.

Posted by Tom Bowler at 10:22 AM | Permalink

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