It's the conclusion from Strategy Page.
For many Moslems, al Qaeda is down, but not out. But for most Moslems, al Qaeda is finished, and openly despised. In most areas where al Qaeda still has some fighters in action, the terrorists are feared and hated. As a result of that, and the recent spread of cell phone service throughout the Islamic world, al Qaeda is fighting hard to survive in any form at all.
It's all about what happened in Iraq. Osama bin Laden was once considered the "strong horse." Enough so that he believed it himself. Believed he was strong enough to take on the Great Satan. Hasn't worked out that way. Of course, we were supposed to think Iraq was a distraction from the War on Terror. Hasn't worked out that way.