Libertarian Leanings

The Measure of Obama's Mandate

Jim Geraghty did the arithmetic.

On Wednesday, I added up Obama’s margin in a few key states, to get a sense of just how agonizingly short the Romney campaign finished from 270 electoral votes.

Some of those straggling precincts have reported, and so here is an updated set of numbers, according to the results this morning on the New York Times’ results map:

Florida: 73,858

Ohio: 103,481

Virginia: 115,910

Colorado: 113,099

Those four states, with a collective margin of, 406,348 for Obama, add up to 69 electoral votes. Had Romney won 407,000 or so additional votes in the right proportion in those states, he would have 275 electoral votes.

Oh My... What Did We Do?

Fiscal realities...

One way to think about this is that most of the $830 billion stimulus of 2009 has now become part of the federal budget baseline. The "emergency" spending of the stimulus has now become permanent, as we predicted it would.

And we have another four years of it on the way...

In the course of his first term, Obama increased the federal debt by just shy of $6 trillion and in return grew the economy by $905 billion. So, as Lance Roberts at Street Talk Live pointed out, in order to generate every dollar of economic growth the United States had to borrow about five dollars and 60 cents. There’s no one out there on the planet — whether it’s “the rich” or the Chinese — who can afford to carry on bankrolling that rate of return.

Realization sets in...

In February 2012, Bernanke coined the term 'fiscal cliff' for this chaos and since then we have been active in discussing the impact (329 ZeroHedge articles). From pointing out the market's total lack of 'pricing-in' to comprehending the contagion and impact of the 'fiscal cliff' or slope or hill, it would appear the world has been numbed into denial by the monetary policy medicine needed to get an incumbent re-elected. The 'efficient' market is now catching on - as are the 'efficient' headlines as we see searches and news stories surge about this critical event horizon.

Four More Years

To say that I'm surprised by the outcome of the election is an understatement.  I thought Romney would win, and win big, but look how wrong I was.  We get another four of Barack Obama. 

It's really quite disheartening.  Call it a missed opportunity.  For all of his faults Mitt Romney is a smart and talented executive.  A Romney presidency would undoubtedly have meant explosive economic growth, and might also have gotten us long way toward putting our nation's finances on a sound footing.  We have that debt crisis facing us.  We need economic growth. 

Obama doesn't.  In his second term Barack Obama has once again inherited the mess left by George W. Bush.  We'll be hearing about that mess for another four years.  Obama's victory speech confirms it:  The continuing economic stagnation is in no way connected to Barack Obama's policies.  Just look at his prescription.

But that doesn't mean your work is done. The role of citizens in our democracy does not end with your vote. America's never been about what can be done for us; it's about what can be done by us together, through the hard and frustrating but necessary work of self-government. (Cheers, applause.) That's the principle we were founded on.

This country has more wealth than any nation, but that's not what makes us rich. We have the most powerful military in history, but that's not what makes us strong. Our university, our culture are all the envy of the world, but that's not what keeps the world coming to our shores. What makes America exceptional are the bonds that hold together the most diverse nation on Earth, the belief that our destiny is shared — (cheers, applause) — that this country only works when we accept certain obligations to one another and to future generations, so that the freedom which so many Americans have fought for and died for come with responsibilities as well as rights, and among those are love and charity and duty and patriotism. That's what makes America great. (Cheers, applause.)

I am hopeful tonight because I have seen this spirit at work in America. I've seen it in the family business whose owners would rather cut their own pay than lay off their neighbors and in the workers who would rather cut back their hours than see a friend lose a job.

In his only mention liberty Obama instructs us that our arguments are "a mark of our liberty."  We might have thought that liberty is what draws people to our shores.  No.  They are drawn by "the bonds that hold together the most diverse nation on earth."  It is our strength, he tells us.

He says nothing about the freedom to strive for a better life for ourselves and our families.  Instead, we must share.  You business owners, sacrifice.  You workers, expect less.  Take that pay cut so that fellow part-timers can share in the ever shrinking wages.  There's just not going to be enough to go around, and you'd better get used to it.

While a Romney presidency promised to unleash the entrepreneurial spirit, in Obama's world entrepreneur is just another job, a government job.  The best and brightest will find their way to prosperity in striving to be middlemen, standing between citizens and their entitlements, doling them out according to prescribed formulas of fairness.  That is the true strength of Obama's America.

Today's The Day

This is it.  The most important election of my lifetime.  In a few minutes I'll get ready, head out, and cast my ballot for the Republican ticket.  Then I'll head down to the Victory Headquarters and where I've volunteered to taxi Republican voters to the polls.

The stakes are incredibly high this time.  Recovering from a second Obama term, if we let him get one, will be a monumentally difficult task.  Four years ago Obama promised to transform America and he has.

Barack Obama has piled on four years of $1 trillion-plus deficits which added over $5 trillion to the national debt.  For a second term Barack Obama promises four more years of the same.    Debt will continue to soar, deficits will increase, taxes and regulations will discourage business investment and job creation, and the economy will continue stagnate.  Our standard of living will continue to fall.

While the mainstream media cheers for the wonderful job President Obama is doing, the crony-capitalism, corruption, and deceit that his first term record promises for the second, will make voters all but irrelevant.  Expect the progressive ruling class to dispense their arbitrary brand of social justice in ways intended only to perpetuate their own power.  The decline of America will accelerate.

But there is still time for his work to be undone.  Barack Obama needs another term to finish the job.  Now is the time to put a stop to it.  Vote.  Vote today.  Vote Republican.

Somebody's Wrong

On the left they're incredulous that anyone could possibly believe Obama will lose tomorrow.  Josh Marshall says, "This could get weird."

Listening to a story from a friend this evening. Guy in a social setting talking to a group of Wall Street heavyweights. Every single one in the room certain Romney wins. Has Ohio locked. Has the whole thing tied up. No doubt.

Up to now Marshall wouldn't give Romney a snowball's chance in hell of taking Ohio, but maybe there's a little hint of doubt creeping in. 

One big thing: the impact of intense labor fights in Wisconsin and especially Ohio and the clear stand against labor taken by Mitt Romney. In Ohio at least, there’s little doubt he’s paying a big price. Here’s the story.

If Marshal has doubts, they are not shared by Mark Kleiman.  The certainty of Marshall's "Wall Street heavyweights" is just more evidence for Kleiman of how wildly out of touch those Wall Street guys really are.

Hoping that your guy will win even though he’s down? Reasonable. Figuring out a way he might actually win, despite the evidence? Not reasonable, maybe, but normal.

But being subjectively certain of a very unlikely outcome? Scary, in people who get to play with billions of dollars’ worth of other people’s money.

Kleiman blogs at "The Reality Based-Community" where "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts."  Interestingly, the facts upon which Kleiman bases his astonishment are opinion poll results.  Let me say that again.  The facts upon which Kleiman bases his astonishment are opinion—.  How about if I break it off right there?

OK, I'll admit it.  Opinion polls results are facts.  It is a fact that a poll comes out the way it does, but the implied prediction of an opinion poll is not fact.  It's an educated guess, but in some cases, like this one, it may not be all that well educated. 

What could be wrong?  For one thing, pollsters have a way of using election models.  According to Gallup, the 2012 electorate looks like 2008, the best election turnout for Democrats in years.  So now you have pollsters like CNN who shows the race tied, but only because it sampled 11% more Democrats than Republicans.  They justfy such a wide disparity by saying the composition of thev2012 electorate will be the same as it was in 2008 instead of the way it was in 2004.  Maybe they feel they can ignore the more recent 2010 elections, where Republicans dominated, because it was not a presidential contest.

For another thing, there are certain quarters where opposition to Obama is automatically blamed on racism.  Chris Matthews is one who makes that charge all the time.  It's a purposeful attack meant to intimidate, but there is a potential backlash to this.  Intelligent people can disagree with Obama's policies, and they don't appreciate being called racist.  They can be intimidated only to the extent that they'll just keep their mouths shut.  The intimidation stops once they get into the voting booth.  It's another flavor of the Bradley Effect.

Finally, there are the 91% who refuse to cooperate with pollsters.  Are they representative of the population at large?  I don't think so.  I think the ones who won't answer the phone, or won't say who they support are more likely to be Tea Party voters than moderates or liberals.  If that's true, and I think it is, the pollsters are going to be way off.

For these reasons and in spite of Obama's recent bump in the polls, I'm sticking with my earlier predictions of a Romney landslide.  My argument gets additional support from the recent example of the Wisconsin recall where Scott Walker held a very slim advantage going in, according to opinion polls, but won comfortably when the actual votes were counted. 

Marshall and Kleiman are certainly entitled to think I'm off my rocker, as I think they are off theirs.  Somebody's wrong, and this is why I think they are.

Listen To The Generals

General Hugh Shelton (USA-ret) and General Tommy Franks (USA-ret) are among 500 retired military officers who have taken out a full page ad in the Washington Times in support of Mitt Romney. The generals and admirals:

By way of PJ Tatler.

The Case For Conservatism

And the case against Barack Obama.

Courtesy of Power Line.

Final CNN Poll — Obama and Romney Tied

Ed Morrissey, Hot Air, checks the poll's internals and explains why this is not good news for Barack Obama.

According to CNN’s internals of this likely-voter survey, Obama doesn’t come close to tying Romney in one key indicator — independent voters.  According to the sample data, Romney leads independents by a whopping twenty-two points, 59/37.  How can Romney have a 22-point lead among independents but still only get to a 49-all tie with Obama?

Here’s how:

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

Yes, that’s a D/R/I of 41/30/29.  In 2008, a big turnout election for Democrats, the D/R/I was 39/32/29, and Obama won independents by eight points.

Does anybody really think the Tea Party is staying home tomorrow?  Not happening.

What Do You Mean, "Almost?"

Sheldon Adelson hasn't left the Democratic party, the Democratic party left him.  He explains why in the Wall Street Journal.

At times, it seems almost as if President Obama wants to impose the failed Illinois model on the whole country. Each year of his presidency has produced unsustainable deficits, and he takes no responsibility for his spending. Worse still, unemployment has become chronic, and many Americans have given up on looking for work.

Seems?  Almost?  Come on, there's no guessing about this.  Obama has come right out and promised to transform America, and it's never been his plan to turn it into anything other than a socialist paradise in which Democrats fund their political entrenchment by taxing the guilt ridden rich and re-directing earned wealth to entitlements for their favored constituencies.

Whenever President Obama deplores the wealthy ("fat-cat bankers," "millionaires and billionaires," "at a certain point you've made enough money," and so on), it tells me that he has failed to learn the economic lessons of Illinois, and that he still doesn't understand the vital role entrepreneurs play in creating jobs in our society.

It would be one thing if Obama had any interest in economic lessons.  If he had, he would certainly not be on verge of defeat in his bid for re-election.  But in Obama's world the economy is a mysterious black box that cranks out wealth on demand.  Pump in some stimulus and out come jobs and prosperity. 

In reality Obama is only interested in exercising political patronage, and in directing federal resources and regulations in ways the help his friends and punish his enemies.  Ironically, Obama embarked on all this with the purpose of consolidating Democrats' grip on power. 

The result has been quite the opposite.  His immediate focus on political goals at the expense of the economy created the enormous backlash that turned the Democratic House back over to Republicans, eliminated a veto-proof Democratic majority in the Senate, and in all likelihood will make him a one term president.  There is only so much the black box can withstand.

New York Daily News — Romney

Another one flips.

Four years ago, the Daily News endorsed Obama, seeing a historic figure whose intelligence, political skills and empathy with common folk positioned him to build on the small practical experience he would bring to the world’s toughest job. We valued Obama’s pledge to govern with bold pragmatism and bipartisanship.

The hopes of those days went unfulfilled.