Luminaries of academia sometimes have a way of appearing positively brain dead. Francis Fukuyama, professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and author of "America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power and the Neoconservative Legacy," editorializes today in the LA Times.
GEN. DAVID PETRAEUS, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, has promised to return to Washington in September to report on the outcome of his surge strategy. I hope he will say that sectarian killings, bombings and U.S. casualties are all down. But even if he does, I doubt he can offer a clear, plausible date by which the Iraqi army and police will be able to stand on their own without massive U.S. support. So regardless of what he concludes, we seem destined to enter the presidential election season with no credible date for a U.S. exit from Iraq.
In more than four years of war, there have been countless turning points at which we were led to expect decisive political progress in Iraq: the capture of Saddam Hussein (December 2003); the turnover of sovereignty (June 2004); elections for the constituent assembly (January 2005); elections to ratify the constitution (August 2005); and elections for the Iraqi parliament (December 2005).
The surge was the last military card we had to play, and now our bluff will soon be called.
His voice is victimhood. General Petraeus has promised thus and so, yet we have "no credible date." "We were led to expect" decisive progress, but alas, here we are with the surge "the last military card we have to play" -- a bluff, soon to be called. Reputed to be a recovering neocon, Fukuyama seems to have come around to the prevailing view that America's purpose now is to find a way to leave Iraq.
The presence of U.S. forces has itself been a spur to terrorist recruitment, but as it becomes clear that we are on our way out, it will be easier for Iraqi nationalists to turn against the foreign jihadists (as they have already begun to do in Al Anbar province).
While the presence of U.S. forces may have drawn foreign fighters into Iraq, it has also been a spur to the recruitment of Iraqi nationalists who join the Iraqi Army and the Iraqi Police in droves. From the outset, foreign jihadists have had no success confronting U.S. forces. As the Iraqi Army and Police grow in efficiency and professionalism, jihadists now find they can't often successfully confront them, either. That leaves civilian bystanders as their only viable target.
And that is what has turned the Anbar Sunnis against al Qaeda, not the perception that U.S. forces are on their way out. For one thing there is no evidence of any plan for U.S. forces to leave Anbar. For another, Anbar Sunnis are coming to recognize that the U.S. is their ally.
RAMADI, IRAQ — A group of Sunni tribal leaders in beleaguered Al Anbar province said Thursday that it intended to form a national party to oppose insurgents such as Al Qaeda in Iraq and reengage with Iraq's political process.
The announcement came after 200 sheiks said to represent 50 tribes met here and agreed to form a provincial sheiks council and hold the first convention in May of their new party, called Iraq Awakening. Sheiks from three other provinces will attend, organizers said.
The driving force behind the new party, Sheik Abdul-Sattar abu Risha, said in an interview that the tribal leaders would be pushing a slate of candidates in Al Anbar provincial elections later this year, as well as in the next round of national parliamentary balloting, scheduled for 2009.
One purpose of the party, Sattar said, is to promote a better image of American-led forces "to the Iraqis here." He added that the tribes also would participate in a U.S.-backed effort to reestablish a court system in Ramadi, the provincial capital. [emphasis in bold added]
With Anbar tribal sheiks turning against al Qaeda and joining the political process, one hurdle has been overcome. Iraqis are turning to politics instead of violence for resolving differences, and they see U.S. forces as their ally in those efforts. In addition, Iraqis of all background are realizing that violence does not originate with the coalition forces, and they are finding common ground in their opposition to al Qaeda and to sectarian forces. Professor Fukuyama correctly asserts that the war is not lost but seems to admit to being clueless to how it can be won. Says he,
The war is not lost, despite the assertions to that effect by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). But victory is not around the corner either. We need to start figuring out how to leave this zombie-like zone now.
But we already know how to leave Iraq. We even know what we have to do to make Iraq a viable democratic nation that can stand on its own when we finally do leave. Iraq Pundit provides the hint.
It is vital that the Iraqi political establishment make meaningful progress on oil-revenue sharing and other issues involving reconciliation.
Reconciliation is the key. Once reconciled, Iraqis will have removed the last vestige of justification for foreign jihadist violence. Al Qaeda is in a power grab disguised as defense of the Arab world against invasion of the crusader. But the strategy of targeting civilians is beginning to prove counterproductive to their aims. Their attack on one Iraqi group is now more widely recognized as the attack on all Iraqis. Those attacks will have to cease or be fully revealed for what they are -- the conquest of Iraq by al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is the enemy and the Iraqi insurgents their pawns.
Reconciliation is the tough nut, but it's the one that will usher in the new golden age in Iraq. Reconciliation will allow U.S. forces to leave. America must stay with the Iraqis until that happens.
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