According to Mario Loyola al Qaeda in Iraq is on the run, engaging in their more recent attack operations mostly out of desperation.
Al Qaeda is no longer master of events in Iraq. Since the surge in operations--and particularly since the start of Phantom Strike--they have lost the initiative. They attacked when and where they did because they are on the run and getting no local support. The attack was forced upon them by the dilemma they face: what to do with their weapons.
Meanwhile Bill Roggio reports that Moqtada al Sadr has issued a order to his Madhi Army to cease all attacks, including those against coalition forces.
Sadr has a very real image problem to deal with concerning the Mahdi Army. Today’s statement calls for an end to violence in order "to rehabilitate [the Mahdi Army] in a way that will safeguard its ideological image." The fighting in Karbala, the violent opposition to the Shia-led government, the criminal activity, and the assassinations of Shia governors are causes of great concern for Sadr. These activities are no longer being tolerated by the greater Shia community.
The Washington Times has more on al Sadr's announcement.
U.S. officials greeted the announcement with caution, but the move could provide a significant boost for the security "surge" now under way in Baghdad and other parts of the country. Aides to Sheik al-Sadr confirmed the young cleric's order included a ban on all attacks on U.S. and coalition forces in the country.
As one might expect, the Washington Post focuses on skepticism that anything positive will come as a result of al Sadr's decree. The story rates page A12 coverage, by the way.
"As far as Sadr, I wouldn't put too much stock into what he says," said a U.S. military official in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity. "He's been spending most of his time in Iran and, because of that, probably has little control over some of the more militant factions" of the Mahdi Army. "As the leadership has been picked off, so has his influence," the official said.
In places where the Mahdi Army is strong, such as the Shiite enclave of Kadhimiyah in Baghdad, officials said, it is doubtful that profit-motivated criminal gangs that operate under Sadr's banner would change their behavior.
Many groups claiming to be part of the Mahdi Army do not respond to commands from the group's central base in Najaf, according to Lt. Col. Steven Miska, a deputy brigade commander based in Kadhimiyah. He suggested that Sadr's statement could be "a political ruse" by which the militia would say publicly it had shut down but continue operations.
In any case, the anticipated mini-Tet Offensive may not materialize. Neither the militias nor al Qaeda seem to be very popular with ordinary Iraqis these days.