Citing the recent opinion article by Brookings Institution analysts Michael O'Hanlon and Ken Pollack on the state of the war in Iraq, Michael Barone believes pubic perceptions of the Iraq war are beginning to shift.
"As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration's miserable handling of Iraq," they wrote, "we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily 'victory,' but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with."
Their bottom line: "There is enough good happening on the battlefields of Iraq today that Congress should plan on sustaining the effort at least into 2008."
His conclusion is born out by a recent Rasmussen poll.
Twenty-five percent (25%) of voters now say the troop surge is working and another 26% say it’s too soon to tell. A month ago, just 19% considered the surge a success and 24% said it was too early to tell. Combining those totals means that 51% are at least willing to give the policy more time. That’s up from 43% a month ago.
As Barone notes, this puts Democrats in a tough spot.
The Democratic base has been furious that Democrats in Congress haven't pulled the plug on the war already, and Democratic strategists have been anticipating big electoral gains from military defeat. But if the course of the war can change, so can public opinion. A couple of recent polls showed increased support for the decision to go to war and belief that the surge is working. If opinion continues to shift that way, if others come to see things as O'Hanlon and Pollack have, Democrats could find themselves trapped between a base that wants retreat and defeat, and a majority that wants victory.
As the primary season approaches we can expect that Democratic presidential hopefuls will pander to their leftist base. Swinging back to the center for the general election from that far out and with that kind of a public opinion divide could make the election of a Democratic president in 2008 impossible.
It is hilarious to watch people like Michael Barone humiliate themselves by putting out articles like this.
Once again, he dishes out an ill-conceived World War II analogy.
There is a reason Iraq is NOT behaving like post-war Germany and Japan, and it has nothing to do with troop levels, military tactics, or "the terrorists."
I feel like I'm living in the bizarro world. There are WAY too many Republicans talking gibberish.
Posted by: Frank | August 06, 2007 at 02:03 PM
Isn’t Michael Barone the guy who tried to come up with the ludicrous explanation as to why Ron Paul got more money in campaign contributions from military families than any other Republican candidate combined?
Why yes, he is.
Posted by: SteveJ | August 07, 2007 at 08:44 PM