Mohammed Fadhil thinks Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki has overstepped by demanding a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.
Maliki waited before making adjustments in his position towards the deal. However, the change came more dramatically than expected. Maliki apparently yielded to Shiite pressure from Najaf and made his choice. He made two mistakes here.
First, he forgot that while he feels that he’s got to listen to what Najaf says, America does not. Neither do Sunnis, Kurds or even many among Shiite Iraqis. Second, by making unrealistic and unacceptable demands he put himself in an embarrassing position. He may have thought that America needs the deal so badly that it will be willing to make huge concessions that he can exploit in order to please Tehran and Najaf.
In Fadhil's opinion, Maliki's position strength does not reflect a balance between Iraq and the U.S. Maliki, he thinks, believes he has consolidated his own political power within Iraq.
This calculation is obviously flawed. Maintaining the presence of American troops is crucial for the survival of Maliki and the future of Iraq — it is not as crucial for America. If America insists on a position of refusing to include a timetable for withdrawal in the agreement, it will be Maliki who will have to make concessions.
That will be very bad for his image.
People make mistakes, but the mistake here is aggravated by the fact that Iraq’s leader has allowed his misperceptions to drive him into making demands that are not in the best interest of his country.
I'm inclined to think Maliki's demand for a timetable is for Iraqi internal consumption. Iraqi leaders seemed anxious to reassure everyone that any timetable would depend on the security situation in Iraq.
It depends on the situation on the ground. I think this will determine the dates or will affect whether it is possible to put (the departure) under a timetable."
A senior Shi'ite official added: "It is very soon to talk about details. The talks are in the early stages."
It's political theatre.
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