Edward N. Luttwak, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the writing is on the wall for Iran's hardline Islamic regime.
'At this point, only the short-term future of Iran's clerical regime remains in doubt. The current protests could be repressed, but the unelected institutions of priestly rule have been fatally undermined. Though each aspect of the Islamic Republic has its own dynamic, this is not a regime that can last many more years.'
Although somewhat late to the party, Obama has finally come around to putting his oratorical support behind the Iranian people instead of continuing his disgraceful suck up to the Ayatollahs in the futile hope that he will persuade them to swear off nuclear weapons.
'WASHINGTON – Dramatically hardening the U.S. reaction to Iran's disputed elections and bloody aftermath, President Barack Obama condemned the violence against protesters Tuesday and lent his strongest support yet to their accusations the hardline victory was a fraud.
Obama, who has been accused by some Republicans of being too timid in his response to events in Iran, declared himself "appalled and outraged" by the deaths and intimidation in Tehran's streets — and scoffed at suggestions he was toughening his rhetoric in response to the criticism.
He suggested Iran's leaders will face consequences if they continue "the threats, the beatings and imprisonments" against protesters. But he repeatedly declined to say what actions the U.S. might take, retaining — for now — the option of pursuing diplomatic engagement with Iran's leaders over its suspected nuclear weapons program.'
Obama is clearly not in the driver's seat. Sure, he talks tough about consequences, but it's nearly impossible to imagine what consequences he would be willing to impose upon Iran's Islamic regime, so doggedly he pursues engagement with the hardliners. But Neda Agha-Soltan's death on the street in Tehran has forced Obama to change his message.
'On Tuesday, President Obama called the images of Miss Agha-Soltan's death "heartbreaking."
"We have experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets. While this loss is raw and painful, we also know this: Those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history," he said at a press conference.'
As Mr. Luttwak's Wall Street Journal column points out, the Iranian people are driving events in Tehran. Obama tries to figure out where.
'What's clear is that after years of humiliating social repression and gross economic mismanagement, the more educated and the more productive citizens of Iran have mostly turned their backs on the regime. Even if personally religious, they now reject the entire post-1979 structure of politicized Shiite Islam with its powerful ayatollahs, officious priests, strutting Revolutionary Guards and low-life Basij militiamen. Many Iranians once inclined to respect clerics now view them as generally corrupt -- including the Ahmadinejad supporters who applauded his attacks on Mr. Rafsanjani.
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Therefore, even if he remains in office, Ahmadinejad cannot really function as president. For one thing, the parliament is unlikely to confirm his ministerial appointments, and he cannot govern without them. If Khamenei is not removed by the Assembly of Experts and Ahmadinejad is not removed by Khamenei, the government will continue to be paralyzed.'
A paralyzed Iranian government would leave Obama with no one to talk to. Once again Obama is behind the curve. At the start of the Iranian protests he moved cautiously, working to stay positioned for the big breakthrough negotiation, the foreign policy coup. Events are getting in the way, though.
It's not as if he has no idea about where he wants to take the country. He's just wrong almost all of the time. So he constantly backtracks, "refining" his positions until he is polar opposite of what he originally promised. It comes as no surprise that his stimulus hasn't stimulated a damned thing except the lobbyists, so that now he's forced to concede that unemployment will go above 10%. Close Guantanamo, "end" the war in Iraq, shut down those military tribunals. The list goes on.
And so it goes with Iran. Now that he's sure which way the parade is headed, he's belatedly running around to the front. Meanwhile his adoring media gush about how well he's leading it.
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