Back in January of this year, David Brady, Daniel Kessler And Douglas Rivers, all of them professors at Stanford University, commissioned a poll of voters in 11 states where November Senate races are expected to be competitive. Those states are Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. How, they asked, did voters feel about health reform and how would they be likely to vote?
In January, a majority in each of the 11 states opposed health reform. Not surprisingly, public opinion was more favorable in the more liberal states. Voters in Connecticut opposed reform by a margin of 55% to 45%, whereas voters in Louisiana opposed reform 63% to 37%. In key battleground states like Colorado and Ohio, voters opposed reform 58% to 42%.
By the end of May, opposition had generally declined, although the declines were small and not statistically significant. Notably, health reform's biggest gains have come in the most liberal states, where election outcomes are less in doubt. Opinion about reform in Connecticut is now evenly split at 50/50; opinion in Louisiana went more negative, to 64% against and 36% for. In battleground states, opposition to reform has hardly budged. Voters in Colorado and Ohio still oppose reform 56% to 44% and 57% to 43%, respectively.
Democrats passed health care reform on the strategy that it would become popular with the passage of time. Quite the opposite is happening.
We also asked the standard generic ballot question, "If the 2010 elections for the House of Representatives were held today, would you vote Democrat or Republican?" If anything, the effect of health reform on House races is even larger than the 20 point effect on Senate races. In January, voters who opposed health reform were 24 points more likely to vote Republican; by May, they were 44 points more likely. This is consistent with Charles Franklin's analysis in Pollster.com showing that, for the first time since 1994, Republicans lead in the generic ballot.
My emphasis above.
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