In what may become the most stunning of upsets this season, incumbent Republican Senator from Alaska, Lisa Murkowski, trails TEA Party favorite Joe Miller in the Alaska Republican primary. Miller was a virtual unknown with $84,000 in the war chest compared to Murkowski's $1.86 million, until Sarah Palin endorsed him.
How Lisa Murkowski (might have) lost
1. The stunning news that developed over night in Alaska -- with 98 percent of precincts reporting, attorney Joe Miller (R) leads Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) 51 percent to 49 percent -- reveals the depth of anti-incumbent sentiment in the country, the power of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (and the tea party movement) and the perils of prognostication in low turnout intraparty fights.
First, the numbers. With 429 of 438 precincts reporting, Miller stands at 45,909 votes while Murkowski has 43,949 votes. According to the Alaska Division of Elections, more than 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and fewer than half (7,600) had been returned as of Monday night.
Absentees won't start to be counted for another six days and there are clearly enough outstanding votes for Murkowski to stage a comeback. If she was to lose, however, Murkowski would be the third Senator to fall in a party re-nomination contest this year.
How did we get here?
Yes, that is the question progressives must ponder. How did we ever come to this! Journolister extraordinaire David Weigel was at a loss.
There was evidence that Miller could win. It was just obscure, because Alaska handicappers didn't see evidence that a combination of lucky factors were breaking his way. (Gutierrez quoted Alaska sources exclusively.) The Palin endorsement got him uncritical national media attention. The Tea Party Express bought $500,000 in ads for Miller, which was the largest single buy in the state. Perhaps most importantly, the Measure 2 anti-abortion proposition was bringing out conservative voters. Meanwhile, Miller hadn't exactly lit the state on fire (one rally brought in nine people).
Did the rest of the media ignore Miller because of bias, then? I don't think so...
Media? Biased? Couldn't be! Though Weigel admitted he was embarrassed to have badly underestimated Miller, his analysis of the primary results suggest he is still doesn't have a clue.
Yes, but since at best Murkowski is going to win closer than any polls suggested, here are two things that affected the race. The first: The Tea Party Express threw around $500,000 into the campaign on Miller's behalf. That's huge money in Alaska. Second: Measure 2, a parental consent ballot initiative, brought out pro-life voters who have never trusted Murkowski. Sarah Palin's early endorsement also handed Miller credibility and media attention which, in a GOP primary, was more important than Palin's increasing unpopularity in the state.
Weigel must get his news from the mainstream media. Among media luminaries Palin is hugely unpopular and becoming more unpopular by the day. Outside of the media echo chamber, she may not fare so poorly. Weigel's misperception of Palin's unpopularity could be the reason he blew it so badly.
He was not alone. On Monday Slate's Alexandra Gutierrez predicted Miller's defeat, a defeat she seemed to relish as an embarrassment for Palin.
On Tuesday, in her home state, Sarah Palin's favorite will probably get trounced. Joe Miller is widely expected to lose by a large margin to incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary—an embarrassing defeat for the former governor, who has endorsed Miller, but also to Miller's other major backer, the Tea Party Express.
Well that didn't happen. But how else could you explain it? MSNBC's First Read has the way. The MSNBC crowd figures that Anger Trumps Accomplishments. After all, there couldn't very well be any thought process involved.
Stunning development: Murkowski trails Miller by 1,960 votes in AK GOP Senate primary… We might not know the final result for days... How to explain why McCain easily won in AZ but Murkowski is in trouble: Anger is trumping accomplishments… That’s a lesson vulnerable Democrats might want to learn…
About that lesson. Everybody knows there is a bit of anger out there among the electorate, but Democrats and other incumbents may want to consider the possibility that anger is a direct result of their accomplishments. Especially their accomplishments over the last 18 months, but before that as well.
They may consider it, but I suspect it won't take. Progressives will regroup to refine their message. The question will always be, "Why don't those rubes get it?"
Meanwhile Sarah Palin's endorsements have been doing pretty well recently.
Tuesday’s Republican primaries showed that Sarah Palin's power should not be discounted.
Four candidates backed by the former Alaska governor pulled off primary victories, while a fifth, Alaska attorney Joe Miller, appeared to be on the verge of pulling off a major upset by defeating Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
People are naturally drawn to a winner, and right now Sarah is looking like the big winner. It's going to be an exciting November. Most exciting is going to be to watch the meltdown in the mainstream media and other hotbeds of progressivism.
Comments