If anybody thought the Republicans would run away from the Medicare issue after Jane Corwin's loss to Democrat Kathy Hochul in Tuesday's NY-26 special election, they need to rethink.
Republicans responded to Democrat Kathy Hochul's Tuesday victory in a traditionally Republican New York Congressional district by saying they needed to attack the Democrats' Medicare position more forcefully, rather than back off their own plan.
"We need to make it a choice between a do-nothing approach that will ultimately destroy Medicare, and life-saving reforms," said Rep. Tom Cole (R., Okla.). Added Rep. Cliff Stearns (R., Fla.): "It's a wake-up call on how you frame it. It obviously wasn't framed right."
Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.), who authored the Medicare plan, said Democratic attacks on his plan were effective in Tuesday's election to fill an open House seat near Buffalo. "They are shamelessly demagoguing and distorting it," Mr. Ryan said, adding that Republicans would have a better chance to make their case over the next 18 months.
At this point, however, Democrats believe they have the winning issue.
Democrats said Republicans were kidding themselves if they failed to read the election as a signal that voters dislike the GOP plan. Under Mr. Ryan's proposal, passed last month by the Republican-led House, Medicare would become a system of private insurance plans, backed by government subsidies, for people now younger than 55.
"If the Republicans truly believe that Medicare was not a factor in this race and they want to double down on their plan to end Medicare, they proceed at their own peril," said Rep. Steve Israel (D., N.Y.), who coordinates Democratic House campaigns.
According to Karl Rove the Medicare issue was a factor but not the crucial factor.
Most, but not all, of this is wishful thinking. Ms. Hochul won a plurality (47%) of the votes, not a majority, getting only one percentage point more than Barack Obama as he was losing the district in 2008. Not exactly a compelling performance.
Democrats won only because a third-party candidate—self-proclaimed tea partier Jack Davis—spent a reported $3 million of his own money. Absent Mr. Davis as a spoiler—he got 9% of the vote—Democrats would never have made a serious bid for this district, nor won if they did. Ironically, Mr. Davis ran for the same seat in the last three elections as a Democrat. This year he ran as a populist conservative.
Still the question remains: Did the Medicare reforms proposed by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and supported by Ms. Corwin play a role in the outcome? The answer is yes, though not with the blunt force and trauma some Democrats are claiming.
Polling by American Crossroads (an independent expenditure group with which I'm associated) showed that while Ms. Hochul's Medicare attacks galvanized Democrats, they swayed few independents. Among voters who had an unfavorable view of Ms. Corwin, just 20% focused on Medicare, with most Democrats already voting for Ms. Hochul.
A larger percentage of those voters with an unfavorable opinion of Ms. Corwin's campaign—26%—were concerned about an ugly on-camera incident involving her chief of staff yelling at Mr. Davis in a parking lot. These voters felt Mr. Davis was being unfairly harassed. The defection of these overwhelmingly Republican and independent voters doomed Ms. Corwin.
NY-26 is a wake-up call for Republicans. Not only must they defend the Ryan plan, they must also attack the Democrats, and the Democrats are wide open for it. Rove puts it well.
Defense, no matter how robust, well-informed and persistent, is insufficient. Republicans must also go on offense. Democratic nonchalance towards Medicare's bankruptcy in 2024 and the crushing debt it will leave for our children gives the GOP the chance to depict Democrats as tone deaf, irresponsible and reckless. The country can't afford Democratic leaders who simply order the orchestra to play louder as the Titanic tilts and begins to slide under.
By sticking to their guns Republicans demonstrate that they're serious about fixing the nations fiscal problems. Time and again Democrats show that their only interest is re-election -- the country be damned.
Update: Linked by Memeorandum! Thanks!
"NY-26 is a wake-up call for Republicans. Not only must they defend the Ryan plan, they must also attack the Democrats."
You hit the nail on the head.
Let's hope they do that. But that requires hours of hard work and creative strategies to expose the Democrats and get the truth out.
And that worries me. The current Speaker of the House strikes me as an empty suit devoid of creative ideas who likes to be at the bar by 4:30 every afternoon.
The Democrats behavior in this matter is pure political selfishness.
Posted by: NewYork1 | May 26, 2011 at 11:50 AM
I think you underestimate Boehner. Won't disagree with you on the Democrats, though.
Posted by: Tom Bowler | May 26, 2011 at 01:31 PM