Mitt Romney has won the Iowa Caucuses. Oh sure, pundits will tell you that the real winner is the one who beats expectations and comes out of Iowa with momentum. That would be Rick Santorum with his late surge that left him only 8 votes shy of outright victory. But Santorum is only the latest in a parade of "not Romneys" who come along and then fade. He is the last gasp from the conservatives-for-purity crowd, a candidate whose socially conservative positions are not necessarily in sync with a majority of voters, a candidate who seems not to have noticed the surging libertarian trend, even as the libertarian Ron Paul took a strong third place with 22% of the Iowa Caucus votes.
So now it's on to New Hampshire where Romney holds a commanding lead in the pre-primary opinion polls.
The next nominating contest will take place in New Hampshire, where Romney holds a commanding lead. The latest Suffolk University two-day tracking poll out of New Hampshire showed Romney with 43 percent support with Paul coming in second with 16 percent.
In remarks late Tuesday night, Paul argued that he won "one of three tickets out" of Iowa -- "and one of two that can actually run a national campaign and raise the money." Paul has attracted an ardent base of supporters with his libertarian views and has the organization to carry his campaign beyond Iowa.
While he couldn't pull off a victory in Iowa, Paul said his campaign has been successful in "reintroducing some ideas that Republicans have needed for a long time, and that is the conviction that freedom is popular."
Coming out of New Hampshire at 2-for-2 Romney will be in position to run the table on the rest of the Republican field. Whether he will or not depends in part on the question framed by Sarah Palin in a caucus night Fox News interview.
Sarah Palin gave her analysis of the Iowa caucuses tonight, refusing to give any single candidate anything close to an endorsement. She also noted rather passionately though, that the GOP had better not marginalize Ron Paul and his supporters after tonight because their fiscal concerns are very legitimate and the GOP had better work with them.
With the Republican establishment backing him, will Mitt Romney ignore the libertarians? And if he does, will it cost him the support of libertarian leaning Republicans? It's my guess that Romney will be careful to do nothing that offends the libertarians or the social conservatives, and that will win him enough of their support as the single best chance for ending the disaster that the Obama presidency has become. There is actually nothing more important than that.
Romney vs. Obama
Oh boy. I'm excited.
Posted by: Robinson | January 04, 2012 at 12:26 PM
Well put. So far, there's been mutual respect between Romney and Paul -- I expect that to continue. Ron Paul is mostly concerned with building a movement. Romney is happy to let him do that, as long as he gets to be President.
Do you think Santorum will make much headway in NH?
Posted by: Ben | January 04, 2012 at 02:28 PM
"the GOP had better not marginalize Ron Paul and his supporters after tonight because their fiscal concerns are very legitimate and the GOP had better work with them."
Ha ha.... This is a deeply flawed and semi-accurate statement.
As someone who used to contribute money to the Republican Party, I will hold my nose and vote for Romney this November. I will NOT contribute money to his campaign or the RNC. I stopped doing that about 10 years ago and have no plans to resume.
Now back to Palin’s statement. There is delusion in the Republican Party, and has been for years.
The delusional crowd wishes to believe that Ron Paul attracts Conservatives with his fiscal Conservatism. He attracts liberals with his foreign policy views.
No. That is not correct. Ron Paul attracts Conservatives because of his fiscal Conservatism. AND Ron Paul attracts Conservatives because of his foreign policy views.
Conservatives do not support everything Paul says in foreign affairs. But neither can they support much of anything that dominates the current Republican Party neoconservative foreign affairs orthodoxy.
If you can think of a bridge between neoconservatives and conservatives, I’m all ears. But neoconservatives are actually Wilsonian liberals. Therefore, you would be trying to build a bridge between a group of liberals and a group of Conservatives.
I am skeptical of a political party being able to function strongly if both groups remain. And since the Republican Party needs enthusiastic Conservatives who send money in order to achieve electoral strength, it is pretty clear who needs to go.
Posted by: Robinson | January 04, 2012 at 05:16 PM
Romney has ignore the tea party and I don't expect that to change. After all where are you going to go?
It must be exciting times in NH. Noe of it appears to be overflowing into MA yet.
Posted by: Jane | January 05, 2012 at 10:30 AM
For me it's more like tense times in NH, Jane. I don't expect much from Romney in the way shrinking the size and reach of government, but I do think he'll stop the bleeding. He'll follow through on his promise to repeal ObamaCare, and the economy will improve dramatically in a Romney presidency. We need that to happen.
Speaking of MA, what did you think of Scott Brown siding with Obama on those "recess" appointments? Did I hear that right?
Posted by: Tom Bowler | January 05, 2012 at 11:49 AM
Hi, Tom. You did hear right about Scott Brown's siding with Obama on those "recess" appointments. It's all about the Elizabeth Warren challenge.
And now, for your amusement, something completely different (Darwinian Libertarian Sissy gets religion): Amazing Grace: Is Rick Santorum the new Sarah Palin? http://is.gd/5e7CBn
Will you be attending National Review debate night event at Manchester Radisson?
Posted by: SIssy Willis | January 05, 2012 at 08:14 PM
Sissy, I don't believe the liberal media will attack Santorum unless and until he wins the nomination. I gotta believe they're salivating over the opportunity to do just what you suggest, make him the new Sarah Palin. He won't be the rising star in their telling of it, though. They'll be trying like hell to poison him as a candidate.
For the time being, it's hands off of Santorum. The media will play it up that he's the serious contender with all the momentum, the one who's going to beat out Rommey. But like Palin Santorum will become the prime target for a media that will be pulling out all the stops to re-elect Obama.
I'll be watching the debate from home on Saturday. I'd like to attend, but they fill up pretty quickly.
Posted by: Tom Bowler | January 06, 2012 at 10:00 AM