Libertarian Leanings

As We Head Into Tomorrow's Wisconsin Recall Vote

Two new polls show that the race is tightening.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, said Walker was leading 50 percent to 47 percent over Democratic challenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in its final survey on Sunday. Angus Reid polling had Walker ahead 53 percent to 47 percent. Both findings were within the margin of error so the results could be even tighter.

The PPP margin of three percentage points compared with a five-point Walker lead in their survey three weeks ago.

"If Democrats turn out in the numbers they did in 2008, Tom Barrett will win a surprise victory. If they don't, Walker will survive," Dean Debnam, president of PPP, said in a statement on the polling firms website.

Wisconsin's independent agency managing the election last week projected a turnout of 60 percent to 65 percent of the voting age population in the recall. This would be higher than the 49.7 percent turnout in the 2010 election for governor won by Walker, but not as high as the 69.2 percent turnout in the 2008 election won by President Barack Obama.

Speaking of Barack Obama, he has been conspicuously absent from Wisconsin over the past few weeks.  Stephen Hayes writes:

So just four days before the recall elections in Wisconsin that the state's Democrats have worked 16 months to win, with potential implications for November 2012, the leader of their party did six fundraisers for himself in surrounding states but couldn't find time for even a quick stop? Think about it: As Wisconsin Democrats were busy getting voters to cast early ballots Friday and organizing for Tuesday, Air Force One flew overhead twice–from Washington to Minnesota and Minnesota to Chicago.

I'm no political strategist, but I don't get it.

Well, maybe it's just brilliant political strategy.  You may recall that Obama put political capital on the line appearing at a couple of get-out-the-vote rallies for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine two days before the 2010 election. 

At afternoon rallies here and earlier in Camden, N.J, Obama delivered similar speeches, urging large, raucous crowds to not only reelect the unpopular Corzine but to work for him with the same fervor they did in last year’s presidential race.

“We will not lose this election if all of you are as committed as you were last year,” Obama told about 11,000 sign-waving Democrats in a Newark sports arena.

And didn't that go well?  For the new New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie. 

So the low profile strategy might work in Wisconsin.  Without any distractions from Obama, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's chances against Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker seem to be improving.  As we edge closer Tuesday, maybe Obama could make a surprise visit.  How about to Beijing or Moscow, where he thinks they like him?  Barrett might be ablle to pull off the upset, his chances improving in direct relation to Obama's distance from Wisconsin.

Update:  Ed Morrissey doesn't put much stock in Barrett's apparent rise in the polls.

First, as noted, the topline results haven’t changed at all in the statistical sense.  Second, Barrett only leads women by six points and barely holds a majority among younger voters — and that’s good news for a Democrat?  Walker has majority approval statewide, holds a +13 among men, and wins by almost 20 points among seniors.  Barrett’s only getting 59% in “greater Madison,” which one presumes would be the area of Dane County most densely populated with public employee union members.  Meanwhile, Walker’s taking 70% of the suburbs around Barrett’s own city.

Turnout will definitely be key, but don’t take too much from this last PPP poll.  The change in status PPP claims is overblown, and the internals point entirely to a different conclusion than a heightened chance of an upset.

Gee, where could Obama go that would be far enough to move those number.  I have some suggestions, but... well, never mind.

So Here's My Question

In a column describing how the Obama economy is Built to Stall, Wall Street Journal editors noted a minor uptick in the size of the labor market last month.

The rare good news is that the overall labor market expanded with 642,000 new entrants, and the labor force participation rate rose to 63.8% from 63.6% in April. This means that more workers have re-entered the job market, perhaps because they believe they can find a job or because their 99 weeks of jobless benefits have finally run out. The bad news is that 63.8% is still about two percentage points—about three million fewer workers—below the modern norm.

By extending jobless benefits, have politicians artificially improved the unemployment rate over these last few years?  Neat trick.

Final Wisconsin Recall Debate

According to Andy Kroll of Mother Jones, the final Wisconsin Recall debate between Democrat Tom Barrett and Republican Governor Scott Walker ended in a draw.

After avoiding confrontation in his first debate with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Gov. Scott Walker punched back hard and often on Thursday night in second and final debate of Wisconsin's bruising, cash-soaked recall campaign. Walker ripped Barrett as weak on crime and suggested he was clueless when it came to a plan to jump-start Wisconsin's economy. Barrett, meanwhile, kept up his attacks on Walker's integrity by highlighting the so-called John Doe investigation that has resulted in criminal charges against three former Walker aides, a Walker campaign donor, and a political appointee.

"I have a police department that arrests felons. He has a practice of hiring them," Barrett said in one of the night's most memorable lines.

Ann Althouse had a different most memorable line.

10:05: I think the highlight was when Walker said "Just to be clear, so everybody's clear here: The Mayor doesn't have a plan, so all he's got is to attack me." And beyond that, Barrett simply hasn't established that a recall is justified. Walker defended what he's done, made the usual claim that his reforms are working, and stood his ground. What more is there to say?

At this stage it looks like Walker is going to hold on in Tuesday's vote.  A week before the vote a Marquette Law School poll had Walker ahead 52% to 45%.  Democrats are now hoping Bill Clinton can stem the tide.

Nothing More To See Here

Anna Marie Cox has decided that it's time to stop talking about John Edwards.  He was never relevant anyway.

What is there to say? For all our tabloid obsessions, there is a point at which a public figure can be humiliated no further. There is a point at which celebrity and notoriety simply wash away and you are left with what passes for private.

Perhaps the defense's decision to keep Edwards off the stand was meant to underscore his irrelevance. His irrelevance in the 2008 campaign is probably what pitched the jurors' battle on such a high precipice they could not climb down. How do you find someone guilty of trying to influence a campaign when the campaign itself is of such marginal importance?

How soon they forget.  Wasn't it just four short years earlier that Edwards was vice presidential standard bearer for the Democrats?  Imagine if the Kerry-Edwards ticket had prevailed.  We might have been spared the particular spectacle of this recently concluded trial.  Who knows what different chain of events would have been set in motion?  Whatever turns they might have taken, they would not have altered the character of the man. 

Edwards would have been a heartbeat away from the presidency.  He would have considered himself heir apparent to the Democratic nomination for the presidency, assuming he made it through two terms as vice president. 

Those Democrats.  They sure can pick 'em.