In a new poll just released by Public Policy Polling, North Carolina is a toss up.
Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's post-Democratic convention North Carolina poll finds virtually no change from last week. Barack Obama leads 49-48, a result hardly different from the 48/48 tie we found last week.
That's not to say the convention wasn't a success for Democrats. 57% of voters think hosting it was a good thing for North Carolina to only 15% who believed it was a bad thing with 26% considering it neutral. Democrats consider it to have been a positive by an 84/4 margin and independents do 53/11. Republicans though believe it was a bad thing by a 34/23 margin. By a 47/39 margin North Carolinians say the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.Why no bounce? North Carolina voters have simply proven to be pretty intractable.
If it sounds like PPP is indulging in a bit push polling on Obama's behalf, maybe it's because they are. Here is the polling breakdown by party.
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or
identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 47%
Republican....................................................... 34%
Independent/Other............................................. 20%
That's quite an oversampling, 47-34. I don't quite see how PPP can claim a +/- 3% accuracy with a sampling skew of that size.
Public Policy Polling also has Obama up by 5 in Ohio, but again the poll is weighted towards Democrats, though not so badly as North Carolina. Here is the Ohio sampling:
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or
identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 41%
Republican....................................................... 37%
Independent/Other............................................. 22%
That may be an accurate breakdown of Ohio's relative party strengths. But is that what election day turnout is going to look like. The Obama campaign shouldn't break out the champagne just yet.
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