The Particulars of Polls

Michael Barone weighs in on the accuracy of opinion polls, particularly those that show Obama with a significant lead over Mitt Romney.

...it's getting much harder for pollsters to get people to respond to interviews. The Pew Research Center reports that it's getting only 9 percent of the people it contacts to respond to its questions. That's compared to 36 percent in 1997.

Interestingly, response rates are much higher in new democracies. Americans, particularly in target states, may be getting poll fatigue. When a phone rings in New Hampshire, it might well be a pollster calling.

Are those 9 percent representative of the larger population? As that percentage declines, it seems increasingly possible that the sample is unrepresentative of the much larger voting public. One thing a poll can't tell us is the opinion of people who refuse to be polled.

Comments

[CaptDMO]

What with all these polls to NH folk, identified only as "unknown cell phone", (despite repeated efforts to answer the phone as "a business")...

Where do we go to get the DAILY poll results of
legislative/leadership contests specific to NH?

I NEED to know who's ahead, TODAY, in the battles-royal for Administrator of cemetaries,and County Librarian.

I'll settle for State-Fed Gov/Rep/Sen/Council.

[Tom Bowler]

Damned if I know.