Sharyl Attkisson, SharylAttkisson.com: Newest ABC News/Wash Post poll on Midterms could have real meaning
- In the Democrat-heavy sample sponsored by liberal-leaning news outlets, Biden and Democrats fare poorly overall
- Republicans slightly favor Trump as their nominee in 2024
- But Democrats overwhelmingly do not want Biden to be their nominee
- Biden's approval and economy numbers are all time lows for this poll
- Democrats' lead among Blacks has fallen 18 points
- Republicans have picked up ground with Blacks, Hispanics, people with no college degree, and women under 40
- Suburban women, Independent men and Independent women favor Republicans
- Registered voters slightly favor Trump in a rematch with Biden
- More people say they prefer a Republican-controlled Congress
[...]
Some polls predict a landslide victory for the Republican Party. That’s typical of Midterms when the party that’s opposite of the president’s tends to make large gains. Add to that President Joe Biden’s lackluster popularity, ongoing support for Donald Trump, the poor economy, crime, the border crisis, energy and education concerns, and many other problems; and some Republicans are feeling confident.
But other polls have found Republicans have lost their momentum and may realize few-to-no big wins. Add to that opposition to Donald Trump, concerns about restrictions on abortion, and media and big tech support for Democrats; and some Democrats are feeling hopeful.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll may be worth examining from a predictive standpoint.
As usual, the pollsters interviewed a Democrat-heavy sample (though not as heavily-skewed left as many polls). Also possibly impacting the results, according to one respondent, the pollsters asked to survey “the youngest female in the household,” and— if no female was said to be in the household— asked to survey “the youngest male in the household” to answer the poll questions.
Shopping for the youth demographics in a poll is more likely to skew the sample toward Democrats or liberal positions, say experts. (I have contacted the poll's producer, Langer Research, to ask for comment, but have not yet heard back as of this writing.)
But what makes this poll notable is that is found some remarkably weak findings for Democrats, even with the Democrat-leaning sample and the alleged shopping for youth respondents.
Read the rest here.
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