Libertarian Leanings

Urban Violent Crime & Legal Gun Ownership: A Story of Geographical Assault in the U.S.

By Cassandra McBride, Ammo.com

Urban Violent Crime Statistics Fast Facts

• National Average Violent crime rate - 366.7 violent crimes per 100K people in the US nationwide in 2019. (Source)
• Washington, D.C., had the highest violent crime rate in 2022, with 999.8 crimes per 100,000 people. (Source)
• 89% of firearms used in crimes were obtained illegally, per a 2016 BJS report.
• Of the 26,000 US homicides in the US in 2021, 60% (15,702) occurred in Metro and Fringe Metro areas.
• Violent crime nationwide decreased by 1% from 1,326,600 in 2020 to 1,313,200 in 2021, with robbery decreasing by 8.6%, lowering the national average.
• Violent crime rates in urban areas were 24.5 per 1,000 citizens in 2021. (Source)
• There were 461,540 arrests for violent crimes in 2020 nationwide. (Source)
• Suburban areas with a population of less than 50,000 had the most violent crimes in 2017.
• Between 1994 and 2002, an increase in street gangs correlated with an increase in violent crime (61.1 homicides per 1.5 square miles).
• Urban areas with a population size of 500,000-999,999 have the highest crude rate of violent crime. (Source)

Many factors play into violent crime victimizations in the U.S. Population size is only one factor. Poverty, criminality, education, and public policies all affect crime rates, particularly violent crime.

Violent crime costs American taxpayers more than $800 billion U.S.D. Annually according to this report. However, this isn’t the most sinister aspect of violence-related victimization in the United States. Recent reports indicate that there are 366.7 victims of violent crimes for every 100,000 people in the U.S. The highest violent crime rate in the U.S. occurs in communities with more than 500,000 and less than 1,000,000 residents.

The second highest violent crime rate occurs in communities with a population size between 250,000-499,999 thousand (21.7 per 100,000). The third highest violent crime rate occurs in communities with more than 1,000,000 people (20.0 per 100,000).

There is little correlation between a state’s firearm laws and violent crime rates. While New Hampshire has relaxed firearms laws, the state’s violent crime rate in 2022 was only 146.38. Washington, D.C., has extensive firearm regulations but a much higher violent crime rate per capita.

Key Methodology & Findings

Crime data is gathered from a variety of federal agencies to compile a broad perspective of actual and empirical data. Homicide reports come from the CDC, violent crime rates come from the FBI and the DOJ, the United States Census Bureau provides population data, and the National Institute for Health provides studies and information regarding economic and geographical crime-related data. Data provided by the FBI and DOJ largely relies on self-reporting from police agencies.

However, crime data takes years to collect; therefore, much of the data available today reflects crimes committed and victimizations from years prior. Moreover, some studies, particularly regarding gang violence in urban and rural settings, are over a decade old. Readers can also note that violent crime victimization rates are measured in 1/1,000 and 1/100,000. So, it’s essential to account for the raw data while also accounting for the percentage of a community’s population concerning crime.

Violent crimes, per the most common definition, include homicide, non-negligent murder, forcible rape (the definition recently changed to remove “forcible”), robbery, and aggravated assault. The United States Census Bureau also redefined urban. Urban populations now comprise 2,500 people with a jump distance (miles traveled between populous) to 1.5 miles.

NY and NJ have the highest concentration of population, with 19,426,449 people. L.A. has the second highest concentration of people, with 12,237,376 people. Texas, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio comparatively have the largest rural population. Anchorage, AK, had the highest number of reported rapes in 2021 (186.7 per 100,000), with 64% of the population being gun owners.

Homicide in Urban Areas

The United States saw 26,031 homicides nationwide in 2021. Of those homicides, 42% occurred in only 50 counties (25% of the nation’s entire population). 28 of the 50 counties had more than 1,000,000 residents, and all 50 counties had more than 100,000 residents.

The highest number of total homicides by county is as follows:

• Cook County, IL - 1,061 homicides of 5,173,146 residents
• LA County, CA - 812 homicides of 9,829,544 residents
• Harris County, TX - 606 homicides of 4,728,030 residents
• Philadelphia County, PA - 551 homicides of 1,576,251 residents
• Wayne County, MI - 367 homicides of 1,774,816 residents

Note: 92% of homicides in Cook County, IL, and 89% of homicides in Philadelphia, PA, were firearm-related despite excessive state gun laws. LA County had the lowest percentage, with 78% of homicides being firearm-related. (Source)

Notably, 11,208 homicides nationwide occurred in Metropolitan areas (total population 101,133,819), and 4,494 homicides occurred in Fringe Metropolitan areas (total population 84,491,905). (Source)

Violent Crimes in Urban Areas

According to a 2017 report from the FBI, Suburban areas accounted for 281,639 violent crimes (excluding homicides), whereas metropolitan counties accounted for 186,137 violent crime reports (excluding homicides). Per this report, suburban areas are locations with fewer than 50,000 citizens.

However, the top five cities with the highest rates of violent crime, including homicides, are as follows (2023):

• St. Louis, MO - 2,082 per 100,000 citizens (279,390 overall population)
• Detroit, MI - 2,057 per 100,000 citizens (621,193 overall population)
• Baltimore, MD - 2,027 per 100,000 citizens (563,455 overall population)
• Memphis, TN - 2,003 per 100,000 citizens (621,777 overall population)
• Little Rock, AR - 1,634 per 100,000 citizens (201,029 overall population)

These five cities exceed the national average of 366.7 per 100,000 individuals by 171%. (Source)

Another interesting facet of violent crime is that the top 5 most violent crime cities in 2023 have an average population density of 1,513.2 people per square mile, while the following 15 cities with high violent crime rates have a population density of 1,511 people per square mile.

For perspective, the average population density of the U.S. is 34 people per square mile. Moreover, we measure crimes as incidents per 100,000 people to account for varying population sizes (Chattanooga, TN, has fewer violent crimes than Chicago, IL, but a higher crime rate due to the population size, for example).

We can compare older reports to newer violent crime statistics and conclude that while violent crime has declined, it is still a problem secluded to areas with higher populations. (Source)

Urban Crime and Firearm Statistics

Another important aspect regarding urban violent crime statistics is the impact of state laws and programs.

While firearms were used in more homicides in 2019, other violent crimes such as robbery and aggravated assault used no weapons or other weapons such as knives (313,939 firearm-related compared to 719,953 alternatives). 309,322 strongarm offenses compared to 309,322 strongarm offenses (where no weapon was used at all) compared to 269,159 firearm-related assaults and robberies. (Source)

Counties with the highest rates of violent crime versus states and gun control legislation:

• Cook County, IL - Strict
• LA County, CA - Strict
• Harris County, TX - Relaxed
• Philadelphia County, PA - Strict
• Wayne County, MI - Mixed (policy changes)

Gangs & Violent Crimes

Communities with 50,000+ people have a higher risk for gang-related violent crimes. (Source)

In 1990, more than 450 street gangs with more than 36,000 members (LA). Violent crime rose, and the LAPD estimated half of the violent crimes were gang-related. (Source)

The last available Gang report from the FBI occurred in 2015. Page 14, High gang-related violent criminal activity. (Source)

Per the FBI, in 2008, gangs did increase the number of violent crimes. (Source)

The number of street gangs in the NIH report from 1994-2002 increased from 3.4 homicides per square mile to 61.1 homicides per square mile with the increase of known street gangs. (Source) However, poverty and dropout rates also showed a strong correlation between gangs and violent crime.

Sources

• Neighborhood Racial and Economic Segregation and Disparities in Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic
• Criminal Neglect

Specie Money: The Forgotten Currency

By Christopher Larsen, Money Metals Exchange

With inflation still at high levels, it is becoming overwhelmingly evident to Americans that Federal Reserve notes steadily depreciate in value as a form of currency.

For example, an item that cost a silver dollar in 1913 – the year the Federal Reserve and federal income tax (16th Amendment) began – would cost close to $31.00 unbacked dollars today, as pointed out recently by Dr. Thomas L. Hogan.

In contrast to today’s ubiquitous fiat currency, specie money was available to our recent ancestors and consisted of coins made of gold, silver, and copper that were stamped with a monetary value and deliverable to holders of paper bank notes when taken to a bank for redemption.

This historic form of money (i.e. commodity money or specie) dominated the world as the primary means of exchange while holding its value and helping provide economic stability.

As renowned Austrian economist Carl Menger explained, specie money emerged spontaneously through the actions of individuals. It was not conceived by a single person or government, and no government compulsion was necessary to transition from a barter system to a sound money economy.

Coins minted in the United States, as well as those from countries like Spain, Mexico, Great Britain, France, and Portugal, contributed to the realm of specie money and were commonly used in global and domestic trade.

The Coin of the Realm in the United States

Article 1, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to coin money and fix the standard of weights and measures.

Through The Coinage Act of 1792, Congress ordered the construction of the United States Mint and made it responsible for minting the coins of the United States.

Nine months later, Congress passed The Act of February 9, 1793, declaring that foreign coins would be legal tender within the United States of America for three years while its national mint produced sufficient coins for domestic circulation.

The foreign coins mentioned in this Act remained in use for much longer than three years, and privately minted coins, especially those minted of gold, also circulated in the United States until the latter half of the 19th century. (Ultimately, Congress banned the private coining of money in 1864.)

Other than a short period around the Civil War, American bank notes also remained formally tied to precious metals throughout the 1800s, exchangeable in specie coins minted of gold or silver bullion.

This financial system backed by both gold and silver was known as bimetallism and was widely adopted across the globe.

Lasting remnants of readily available U.S. specie money include pre-1933 gold $20 Double Eagles, $10 Eagles, $5 Half Eagles, and $2.50 Quarter Eagles. Most of these items are sold today near their gold melt value – but some may command a higher collectible value if they are in excellent condition or minted in particular years.

Other Constitutional silver coins, commonly known as "junk silver," were minted before 1965 and are a great low-cost option for investing in silver specie coinage today.

These coins were minted of 90% silver and 10% copper in 1964 and prior (pre-1965), and include Half Dollars, Quarter Dollars, and Dimes. Peace Dollars and Morgan Dollars are commonly found as well.

Even copper pennies minted before 1982 (when virtually all of the copper was swapped out for cheaper zinc) are stockpiled by some value-minded savers.

Those looking to invest in specie can also look abroad, to French 20-Franc gold coins, British gold Sovereigns, Mexican 20-Peso gold coins, and more.

Fiat Money Drove Specie Money Out of Circulation

Gresham's Law predicts that "good money" will be driven out of circulation by "bad money."

Through government actions, specie money was systematically replaced by Federal Reserve notes and clad coinage throughout the 20th century.

The last link to gold was severed by President Richard Nixon in 1971 whereupon the United States “temporarily suspended” (i.e. “permanently defaulted on”) the convertibility of the dollar as prescribed by the Bretton Woods Agreement between the world’s major central banks.

Today’s unbacked Federal Reserve note – still referred to as a "dollar" even though it does not meet the historical definition (372.5 grains of silver or about 0.775 troy ounces) – has now lost a staggering 98% of its purchasing power since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

Modern-day paper currency (and its electronic equivalents) have long since been irredeemable in specie, making it a cinch for the government to issue this fiat currency as legal tender with reckless abandon.

As we live in an Age of Inflation, specie money reminds us that a more stable and sound monetary system once existed – and is possible for us to return to once more.

 

Christopher Larsen is a precious metals specialist at Money Metals Exchange. Previously, he worked on Capitol Hill as a Senate staff assistant as well as in the Office of the U.S. Senate Sergeant at Arms.

7 Revelations From Ex-Capitol Police Chief That Explode Democrats’ Jan. 6 Narrative

By Tristan Justice, The Federalist

1. DHS, FBI Hid Intelligence From Capitol Police

Sund went on to make explosive allegations of federal misconduct related to the Capitol chaos that raised more questions than answers about how and why the complex was left vulnerable. The Capitol Police, Sund said, were left in the dark about a cascade of intelligence gathered by the FBI and Department of Homeland Security that warned about the rally turning violent...

2. Milley Wanted to Shut Down D.C. Ahead Of Jan. 6

Military officials were so concerned about the intelligence that warned of an explosive riot that the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milley, considered preemptively shutting down the city...

3. Congressional Leadership Denied National Guard Requests Before and During Riot

Despite federal intelligence warning of mass upheaval amid the joint session of Congress, Sund explained how he was denied preemptive deployment of the National Guard twice in the days leading up to the riot. On Jan. 3, 2021, Sund sought approval from congressional leadership for guard deployment as was still required by law...

4. Secret Service Turned Over One Text to J6 Committee

While Sund made dozens of calls from the Capitol command center, the first agency to come to the police chief’s assistance was the Secret Service.

“One of the first people to offer assistance was United States Secret Service,” Sund said. “By law, I shouldn’t have requested their assistance … until I had approval. But I’m looking at my men and women having their asses handed to them and my first thought was ‘f-ck it, I will take whatever discipline there is. Send me whatever you got.'”

“That was the one text Secret Service turned over,” Sund added...

5. New Jersey State Police Arrived to Help Before National Guard

While Sund was begging congressional leaders to greenlight assistance from the National Guard, New Jersey State Police were on their way to reinforce Capitol Police...

6. Sund Wasn’t Told About Federal Informants Present at the Capitol

In the fall of 2021, The New York Times confirmed the presence of at least one federal informant at the Jan. 6 Capitol riot after the paper dismissed such claims as a conspiracy theory. The former Capitol police chief, however, was kept in the dark on undercover operations with “no idea” how many were in the crowd...

7. Lawmakers Didn’t Want Sund to Testify

In the aftermath of the Capitol riot, lawmakers began to schedule hearings on the security failures while the fever grew to launch a snap impeachment of the outgoing president.

“I fought to testify,” Sund said, but “they didn’t want me to testify in the Senate hearing.”

I'll add Number 8, though it wasn't revealed by Chief Sund, and we'll probably never have proof.  Based on the Whitmer case, it's a safe bet that intelligence withheld from the Capitol Police originated from within the federal intelligence agencies.

Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund Interview with Tucker Carlson

Ep. 15 Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund reveals what really happened on January 6th. Our Fox News interview with him never aired, so we invited him back. pic.twitter.com/opDlu4QGlp

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) August 10, 2023

U.S. Debt Downgrade Points to More Currency Debasement

By Mike Gleason, Money Metals Exchange

As debt downgrade concerns push up bond yields, metals markets are facing selling pressure.

Credit ratings agency Fitch this week issued a surprise downgrade of the U.S. government’s once-vaunted AAA credit rating. Recent political brinksmanship surrounding the debt ceiling helped prompt the move. But broader concerns about the size and sustainability of the national debt itself also figured into the downgrade.

In response, the Biden administration trotted out Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to protest the downgrade and proclaim that federal finances are in good shape.

But Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former head of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, isn’t buying what Yellen is trying to sell. In an interview with Yahoo! Finance, he noted that there is no plan afoot in Washington to turn around the nation’s worsening fiscal outlook.

Yahoo Finance Anchor: Fitch downgrading its AAA credit rating on the U.S., the agency blaming rising political divisions and mounting debt. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen denounced the move, calling it in her words, "Entirely unwarranted." Our next guest says Fitch made the right move. Joining us now is American Action Form President and former CBO Director, Douglas Holtz-Eakin.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin: Fitch said three things, most of the conversation's been about the erosion of governance, but they also pointed out importantly that the U.S. has a seriously unsustainable fiscal outlook, high deficits, and debts that will get higher relative to GDP as far as the eye can see, and importantly, it has no plan to deal with its fiscal outlook and so on the substance, the U.S. has a very big problem, and this isn't news. This has been true for a while, and the fact that we continue to not deal with it, I think is the heart of the downgrade.

Investors are finally starting to demand higher yields on long-term Treasury paper. Yields may have much further to go before they adequately compensate investors for taking on both credit risk and inflation risk.

The risk to metals markets is that higher rates on debt instruments serve as competition for sound money instruments.

The national debt is currently approaching $33 trillion, whereas U.S. GDP will come in at around $26 trillion this year. It’s never a good sign for a country’s fiscal health when it owes more than its economy can produce. Worse, the debt burden is projected to grow faster than the economy for years to come.

The CBO projects Uncle Sam will run an annual budget deficit of $1.4 trillion in 2023. The deficit will average $2 trillion per year over the next decade.

In prior years, apologists for massive government borrowing could point to debt servicing costs being quite manageable in an environment of ultra-low interest rates. But the era of zero interest rate policy at the Fed is over. Interest payments on the debt as a proportion of the federal budget are now set to soar.

Interest on the debt, defense, entitlements, and other so-called “mandatory” spending will overwhelm discretionary spending. Any attempts by fiscal hawks to narrow the budget deficit will run up against these realities as well as entrenched political resistance to any spending cuts.

Instead of getting its fiscal house in order, the government will continue to rely heavily on its lender of last resort, that being the Federal Reserve. In theory, the Fed can provide Congress with unlimited liquidity through the power of the printing press.

Tens of trillions of new fiat dollars will have to be created out of thin air in the years ahead in order to supply the Treasury Department with the cash it will need to borrow into existence. That, of course, will carry inflationary implications.

Even with higher nominal rates, the prospects for government bonds or cash instruments keeping savers ahead of inflation are poor.

Inflationary fiscal and monetary policy won’t keep federal finances afloat for long if real interest rates are positive. Officials in Washington need real rates to be negative – which is to say that the currency in which their debts are denominated depreciates more rapidly than the rate of interest they owe.

Higher nominal rates may appear to make dollar-denominated debt instruments relatively attractive to hold compared to physical gold and silver which yield nothing. But precious metals markets have the potential to deliver impressive real gains in a raging bull market.

Just as there is no limit to how much U.S. fiat currency can depreciate, there is no limit on how high gold and silver prices can go in terms of Federal Reserve notes.

Of course, investors need to have realistic expectations. Gold and silver markets aren’t guaranteed to outperform bonds in any given year.

But in an environment of deteriorating credit quality and rising inflation risk, investors shouldn’t feel safe owning Treasuries, regardless of their nominal yield.

Hard money in the form of gold and silver has zero credit risk. They also have a track record for retaining their purchasing power over time that is unmatched by any government-issued debt instrument.

 

Mike Gleason is a Director with Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named "Best in the USA" by an independent global ratings group. Gleason is a hard money advocate and a strong proponent of personal liberty, limited government and the Austrian School of Economics. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason has extensive experience in management, sales and logistics as well as precious metals investing. He also puts his longtime broadcasting background to good use, hosting a weekly precious metals podcast since 2011, a program listened to by tens of thousands each week.